High Consequence Events and the Fallacy of Randomness

By Michael Larrañaga


Album Notes:

  • The music in the background created some audience whispers early in the presentation... it is odd to have background violins under a technical presentation. Little did we realize that it was intentional...
  • It is easy to miss a moonwalking bear... Focusing on the obvious leads to missing critical factors that contribute to the evolution on a catastrophic event.
  • Black swans theory - a metaphor for changing a mindset... a single observation, a new discovery, a major rare event that forces the need to rethink the "known realities"
  • High consequence events are the risks that do not receive the level of attention needed to prevent.
  • Normal statistical analysis, bell curves and Newtonian physics may not be the appropriate tools to analyze complex risks.
  • Randomness organizes... then catastrophic events happen.
  • Dr. Larrañaga loves IH... and his t-shirt proved it... 


  • Monday's keynote was the most valuable to me because it brought into focus some principals that are critical for preventing high consequence events. I will use these principals in my consulting practice.
  • I will be applying the principals that I learned in Monday's keynote address. Fantastic!

Want to hear more?

Full presentation is available here.